As the Party machine begins to gear up for 2024 there is one area of the election strategy that risks becoming a sideshow.
London has long since been an entirely different challenge for the Conservatives, separate and distinct from other regions, but as we see ever greater parts of London switch from blue to red, or even yellow, the challenge facing London Conservatives appears to grow year-on-year.
With a new Party Chairman in Greg Hands, who as a London MP himself will have a keen appreciation of what it will take to win here, it is vital that next year’s London Mayoral Election forms part of the broader Conservative General Election strategy.
Labour’s governance of London is not without fault. Its Achilles Heel is the parlous state of the capital, a grim milieu that has long since been accepted as the norm. The issue is the ease with which Labour is able to pin failings of their own making on central government. That schtick sticks, but Sadiq Khan’s arrogance is ripe for exploitation.
Aside from his well-documented failures on housing and crime, as well as his boorish ULEZ crusade (now ruled on by the High Court to have possibly been illegal), one of the most striking elements of the current Labour leadership is the notable absence of bonhomie between Sadiq Khan and Sir Keir Starmer. Given Khan is Labour’s most senior elected politician and Starmer himself is not only Labour leader, but a (North) London Labour MP, the infrequency with which Starmer and Khan appear together speaks volumes for the tensions that potentially exist between the Parliamentary Labour Party and a Mayor of London – whose own fiefdom consistently flies in the face of wider Labour policy. There is rarely, if ever, any correlation between Labour pledges and Sadiq Khan’s public support for them. The wedge is there to be driven.
Beyond that there are a variety of opportunities and threats facing the Conservatives in next year’s election, with seats under pressure in the General Election via a blend of current polling and awkward boundary changes, to the creeping influence of the Lib Dems and whether the move to first-past-the-post will prove to be a help or a hindrance. But what are the key facets of the campaign we must get right, not only to ensure that the Mayoral election is competitive, but also to set the conditions for London seats in the General Election thereafter?
It almost goes without saying that we must select a credible Mayoral candidate with the necessary gravitas and appeal. The demanding nature of the campaign lends itself to an Assembly Member who has the necessary platform to challenge the Mayor directly in City Hall, as well as the track record of highlighting his many failings and foibles. However, for any of our Assembly Members to go into this campaign on the front foot there will need to be a concerted push to increase their profile. With the best will in the world there are few Londoners outside of those with an active interest in the politics of City Hall who know who the Assembly Members of any party are. Conversely, Sadiq Khan’s much publicised personal PR machine has been nothing if not effective.
Looking beyond the London Assembly it would be a huge challenge for someone other than a former MP or someone with existing name recognition to hit the ground running. It is evident that whoever is selected as the Conservative London Mayoral candidate, they are going to need a broad appeal from the North London liberal intelligentsia to the ethnic minority communities who do not traditionally vote Conservative. No mean feat by any standard.
To that end it is imperative that the campaign is well backed, irrespective of the resource challenges that there will likely be in a General Election year. If we assume that the London Mayoral Election will come ahead of a General Election the result in London could prove a bellwether for how that General Election may play out in the capital. It will provide a key opportunity to gauge feeling towards the party and particularly whether the policies we offer Londoners are seen as an attractive proposition. Should that result manifest itself as a Conservative Mayor, however improbable that may appear at present, we will be well placed to capitalise on those policies more widely; a hugely positive sign for those candidates standing in London. Should the election return another Labour Mayor then the scale of any defeat will be key.
Lastly, we must have a joined-up strategy for London. The local elections in London last year were notable for their lack of a holistic approach that set-out a Conservative vision for London. Many of the most pressing issues are repeated across all London Boroughs; anti-social behaviour, illegal HMOs, fly-tipping, LTNs, ULEZ expansion, housing, council tax, policing et al. Those planning the London Mayoral campaign would benefit from engaging with all our London Associations in order to identify the issues facing each borough, not just those that Conservatives feel most strongly about, but those that frustrate and impact all Londoners.
It is essential that we have a core set of messages on issues that apply across the whole of London, can be messaged centrally allowing activists and Assembly Member candidates to provide consistent messaging that not only cuts through, but also dovetails into the campaigns of the General Election candidates in London seats who will be in place by the time campaigning for the Mayoral election is in full swing.
The London Mayoral election is a key milestone on the path to a General Election victory in 2024 and one that needs to deliver, at the very least, a result that shows a positive trajectory and a party with an offering that appeals to a broad cross-section of voters.
Momentum is key in any election cycle and the Party can ill-afford to select a candidate, or run a campaign, that gives voters the impression that winning is an afterthought.
