The party must do more than exploit the frustrations of disgruntled voters to be taken seriously after their victory in North Shropshire
There is no doubt that the result of the North Shropshire by-election sparks a horrible feeling of déjà vu; for the second time in six months a safe Conservative seat has fallen to the Liberal Democrats in a by-election.
The loss of a seat that on paper is arguably one of the safest in the country - solidly Conservative since 1832 less for a brief two-year dalliance with the Liberal Party in 1904 - will inevitably lead to recriminations by those convinced that the Government has more than a whiff of Fin de Regime about it. But far from being an indicator of an administration in its death throes, an ambivalent reaction from the electorate should be expected at this stage of the electoral cycle.
Whilst defeat by such a significant swing is a surprise, losing a mid-term by-election is far from unprecedented. It is still against the run of play for the governing party to win a mid-term by-election, and victory in Hartlepool in May has perhaps failed to manage expectation in that respect.
Looking at the results themselves, it is clear how the defeat was inflicted. Turnout was down by over twenty per cent; the vast majority of whom appear to have been Conservative voters. Their apathy is unsurprising given the constant drip of negative press ever since the Owen Paterson affair needlessly triggered this by-election in the first place. The temporary withdrawal of support is more a shot across the bows that voters are unhappy with recent conduct, than a sudden affinity for the non-descript political presence of the Liberal Democrats. A position that should be eminently recoverable for the Prime Minister.
However, analysis of the results compared to those from 2019 makes for interesting reading. Labour saw their vote share in the constituency collapse by over seventy per cent, most of which quite probably went into bolstering the Lib Dem vote. Assuming those on the Left motivated by a Conservative defeat maximised their turnout, it is quite feasible that the number of “lifelong Tories switching their vote to the Lib Dems” was somewhere around 3,500. That figure has a far smaller impact than the absence of voters altogether.
Whilst it is the duty of any political candidate to talk up their chances of victory no matter how fantastical they may be, the key difference with the Lib Dem by-election machine is that it fervently believes its own hype. The much derided “Winning Here” Lib Dem bar chart has already established itself as the Trompe l’oeil of political literature. But with so many activists willing to brandish their glistening claims, the Lib Dems have been undeniably effective in creating a narrative of momentum and success. A narrative that is giddily latched onto by the media and given the oxygen it needs to grow, irrespective of how accurately it reflects the actual level of support.
Such a panglossian approach to campaigning has now twice been shown to pay dividends. Buoyed by their victory in Chesham and Amersham - where they achieved a similarly remarkable swing after pitching themselves as anti-HS2 and anti-planning reforms - the Lib Dems have been convinced that they can unify the Left and repeat the success, pitching themselves as the anti-Tory option. A feat that would have been made significantly easier were Labour actively participating in a progressive alliance. Indeed, the real winners here are not those championing the Lib Dems as a resurgent political force, but those who have long campaigned for a progressive alliance among the parties of the Left.
The Liberal Democrats, however, have long had a knack for exploiting the frustrations of disgruntled voters, shamelessly hawking their wares as “the chance to send the Government a message”. That message presumably being that the Liberal Democrats are now little more than the go-to party of protest. After all, how do you fight a party that only stands for whichever cause it believes gives it the best chance of winning, even if that means scooping up the yellow-stickered items from the bottom of the Change UK chiller cabinet.
For a party that harbours desires of seismic victories across marginal seats at the next election, the Lib Dems are embarrassingly bereft of political purpose. If they expect to be taken seriously as a political party in their own right, they will need to offer the electorate more than their rudderless brand of opportunistic contrarianism. They may find that once the electorate scratches below the surface, the lack of substance offered by the third-placed political party is very much a third-rate offering.
With two years until the next General Election, one dalliance per century is perhaps all the Liberal Democrats should hope for.
